Horrible Truth Behind the Extension of Military Service
By Tang Shao-cheng
United Daily News, January 1, 2023
Recently, the government formally announced that the compulsory military service will be extended from four months to one year, effective January 1, 2024. This announcement attracted great attention, and the United States promptly expressed its support. However, if we examine the matter carefully, the truth and cause of this new measure are horrible and must be analyzed from the dimension of U.S.-China competition.
First, this issue falls within the idea of the Thucydides Trap, meaning when the foremost power feels the increasing threat from the second most powerful, the former has to suppress the latter, otherwise it will be difficult to keep its hegemonic status. In fact, when he was president, Donald Trump had stated that if the United States did not deal with China in a timely fashion, then Americans would need to speak Chinese in the future, vividly reflecting American trepidation.
Therefore, from the trade war, science and technology war, to the current chips war, plus the solicitation of alliances, it is evident that American strategy is targeted at China. But this strategy requires a lot of resources. In comparison, playing the Taiwan card costs the least and is most effective; members of the U.S. Congress can shock Beijing by merely raising their hands.
Second, mainland China’s current policy objective of reunification with Taiwan will not change. If the unification is peaceful, how can the United States intervene? If the unification is forceful and swift, and Taiwan’s casualties are low, then the U.S. would not be able to react to the situation in time. When the unification becomes a fait accompli, all policies to support Taiwan will fail. By then, how can the U.S. successfully suppress China?
Likewise, if the United States rearms Taiwan as a porcupine, as the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) advocates, then Beijing would not attack Taiwan, and the two sides of the Taiwan Strait would maintain a balance of terror. Is this in the American interest to suppress China? Conversely, if Taiwan suffered great casualties during forceful unification, then it would offer the best excuse for the U.S. to intervene and achieve its ultimate goal to sanction the mainland. This is the original intention of the United States.
Furthermore, through the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the United States can make military loans to constrain Taiwan military’s tactics and strategy, and the United States change its initial strategy area denial urban warfare. The U.S. even plans to detail people to Taiwan's government agencies to monitor them. This clearly shows that the U.S. is concerned that Taiwan does not have the sufficient resolve to fight against enemies and wants to do the job if Taiwan is unable to do it by itself. President Tsai Ing-wen stated that the extension of compulsory military service has nothing to do with the United States, this is a blatant lie. The U.S. is controlling the situation and this is just the beginning.
In sum, it is only when the people of Taiwan become cannon fodder can the American goal of suppressing China be reached. Whlie the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) is seemingly going along with the extension of compulsory military service , the challenges that this party is dealing with is so great that it can not afford go against the U.S. This is similar to the case of the referendum on lowering the voting age to 18, and people should make the best choice in the future when they cast their ballots.
(The author is adjunct professor of the National Chengchi University.)